 |
| If it's anything like Windows, 95 is the year the Oscars really come into their own. |
Sorry there wasn't a review this week. (Like you even noticed.) But here's the thing: I have always loved the Oscars. Passionately and unironically. And for the third year in a row I challenged myself to watch every nominee before the ceremony. Accessibility has finally reached a point where you can (legally) track down every nominee before the day in most places. And as a chronic procrastinator with a full-time job, I haven't had time for much else this week but plowing through the remaining movies. So today I want to dig in and make some bad predictions about how the 95th Annual Academy Awards will go down.
But first I want to talk about why I love the Academy Awards. The Oscars and I go way back. I know we watched them as a family every year, but the earliest memory I have of the ceremony is probably/inexplicably the Forrest Gump sweep. I have no idea why. But the following year is when the show started meaning something to me, because my favorite movie at the time, Babe, was taking the world by storm! It ran for months, had a ton of incredible TV commercials featuring those singing mice, and was nominated for a whole slew of Oscars. I was riveted. Seeing the VFX team take the stage was the highlight of 8-year-old me's year.
I don't think I was aware there were people who didn't like the Oscars until the mid-2000s. I had never considered the politics that drive the nominations, the diversity issues, or that there were alternative awards options. Through high school I would try to catch the Best Picture nominees, and get very defensive of the handful I would actually see. The scales did eventually fall from my eyes, of course. But here's the thing: I still really really like the Academy Awards. Because I love cinema. And because sports are boring and politics make me sweaty. So it's the only competition I've got, man! They're a weird, navel-gazy time capsule of our societal priorities and interests, a live TV experience that offers unforgettable moments (from the streaker to the Slap), and at the end of the day it's a decent spotlight for some great movies, both mainstream and independent. And honestly, even when it's an absolute trainwreck, if there are enough montages or video packages, I'll have a good time. I watch this piece from Errol Morris like six times a year:
And that's why I keep tuning in. And why I've gone all completist on the nominees. I'm not going to lie: Watching every nominated film can turn into a bit of an endurance race. (Even though I've never literally been in one of those, I suspect they get pretty dark now and then.) Especially when Diane Warren keeps getting nods for forgettable songs in even more forgettable films year after year. 2021 was tough, and 2022 wasn't much better. But the experiment has led me to some gems I would have otherwise missed each year. Documentaries like Collective and The Mole Agent. International films like Quo Vadis, Aida? and Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom. And I gain more confidence in my discernment every time something I would have skipped turns out to be bad. (Don't Look Up comes to mind. Ditto My Octopus Teacher.). I have found myself agreeing less and less with the Academy lately, but I feel more engaged with film as a whole. And isn't that what the Oscars are really - or should be - about: celebrating excellence in the medium?
With that in mind, here are my (admittedly weak) predictions and general thoughts on each category this year. (You can find the full list of nominees here.)
Best Animated Short Film
Who Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
Who Should Win: My Year of Dicks
Amongst the shorts, animation is usually both the easiest to track down and to stomach. This year felt particularly strong, with incredible works in traditional animation like Ice Merchants and The Flying Sailor and a stop-motion oddity called An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It that has big Anomalisa vibes. I'd prefer if the inventive visual memoir My Year of Dicks won, but it feels a little too niche. Apple TV+'s adaptation of Charlie Mackesy's book The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse will probably take it. The short has some big names attached, like J.J. Abrams and Idris Elba involved and it's based on a massive bestseller.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Who Will Win: Stranger at the Gate
Who Should Win: The Elephant Whisperers
If you're looking for a bad time, doc shorts is (usually) your category! Misery is often the name of the game. This year was more pleasant than most, but still tackles themes like global warming's effects on walrus migration (Haulout) and domestic terrorism (The Stranger at the Gate, which feels likely to win). Netflix's The Elephant Whisperers would be my pick though. It's a lovely film about a couple who raise orphan elephants on a preserve in southern India. Nature documentaries are a dime a dozen, but this one has enough heart and personality for a feature.
Best Live Action Short Film
Who Will Win: Le Pupille
Who Should Win: The Red Suitcase
As with the docs, I have learned not to expect much from the live action nominees. Granted, previous winners have included Riz Ahmed, comedian Steven Wright, Martin McDonagh (somehow his only win to date)... And that ain't bad company to be in. Plus they tend to invite more foreign films into the competition, something the rest of the voting body could improve on. But it can sometimes feel like the Academy is reaching when it comes to filling the slots. This year is a mixed bag. Disney+'s Le Pupille will probably win, with a big studio behind it and Oscar favorite Alfonso Cuarón producing. But The Red Suitcase is so harrowing and has the most haunting final shot of any movie this year, so I've got my fingers crossed for an upset.
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
Who Will Win: The Whale
Who Should Win: The Batman
All Quiet on the Western Front has the most make-up, so maybe it will sneak in, but Brendan Fraser's performance was shaped so much by the suit he wore through The Whale that I suspect it will have the edge. The Batman felt like it did fat suits better with Colin Farrell's Penguin, and in general the film had a more distinct, impressionistic look when it came to hair and make-up. It came out so early in 2022 that I don't think it has a shot, unfortunately.
Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: Elvis
Who Should Win: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Betting against Catherine Martin, who has picked up two (scars in this category already for Baz Luhrman films, feels like a mistake. But All Quiet, again, has so many costumes, and sometimes quantity is key. But Mrs. Harris (who did indeed go to Paris) is such a celebration and a showcase for the category that I'm hoping the Academy recognizes it with a tiny golden man.
Best Production Design
Who Will Win: Elvis
Who Should Win: Babylon
Again, it's the Catherine Martin show. All Quiet or Babylon could swoop in, and I'd actually be pretty happy with the latter. Damien Chazelle's fever dream of Hollywood excess is big and insane and overproduced in all the right ways, and deserves this one award alone.
Best Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Who Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
This one feels like a lock. There's so much craft that goes into what James Cameron's VFX team does, so I get it. But then he goes and ruins whatever semblance of believability he's generates by putting it in 3D and ramping up the FPS. Maverick is out there doing just as much pioneering, including in its effects, which are flawless. So I'm hoping for another Tom Cruise miracle here.
Best Sound
Who Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Who Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Maverick was the most sensorially engrossing movie of last year, and I think the Oscars will recognize that. But I also don't really understand sound, so this might just be wishful thinking.
Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who Should Win: TÁR
I'm starting to think I've underestimated All Quiet on the Western Front, which feels like the runner up to so many categories that it's gotta sneak in somewhere. I suspect its horrific images have remained in the memory of enough voters to solidify a win here. Bardo and Empire of Light are gorgeous, but those films weren't received well. And Elvis is chopped to bits. TÁR would be my pick, which features photography as cold and calculating as its protagonist, but I'm not sure enough voters have registered its technical feats.
Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
If we're going off of the theory that whatever has the most editing usually wins, then Elvis has this in the bag. Everything Everywhere All at Once gives it a run for its money, and flows so much better as a story, but is that enough to push it to first place? Maverick is such a cleanly structured movie that I would put my money on it. It's all planning and montages... What's a more crowd-pleasing use of editing than a montage!
Best Original Score
Who Will Win: Babylon
Who Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Music is integral to Chazelle's films, and despite the many gripes that have been hurled at Babylon this season, Justin Hurwitz's score has gone untouched. And it keeps tempo well through the chaos, so I'm predicting it will win. But Hurwitz already has two Oscars, and Carter Burwell's work on Banshees resonates the tone of that film so so so perfectly. It's beautiful and haunting and curious, and Burwell is long overdue for the award.
Who Will Win: "Naatu Naatu" from RRR
Who Should Win: "Naatu Naatu" from RRR
This category is a scourge. Four of these songs (all from talented artists) don't even exist. Do you remember there even being songs in these movies? Me neither! "Naatu Naatu", however, is not only a great song, but a pivotal scene in the Telugu powerhouse RRR. The live performance at the ceremony is sure to be one of the show's highlights and the film's win will probably produce some of the night's loudest applause.
Best Animated Feature Film
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Who Should Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Every one of these films is a winner, and I would be happy with just about any of them taking the Oscar. The Academy loves Pixar, so I'm not counting Turning Red out, but they also love del Toro. And Pinocchio was released more recently, so it seems bound for gold. But man would I love to see that little shell take the prize.
Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Who Should Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
This was such a great year for documentaries! They're so much more hopeful than previous years, even when their subjects are up against such dire obstacles. It's hard not to pick Fire of Love for personal preference, but All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is so powerful and timely. Operating as both a Nan Goldin retrospective and an examination of the opioid crisis and the protesters who are trying to bring attention to is, there isn't a film this year that more desperately needs to be seen by this nation.
Best International Feature Film
Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who Should Win: The Quiet Girl
These movies couldn't be more different. All Quiet will of course win. It's got too much attention on it. But The Quiet Girl is the most emotionally engaged film of the year, and it's just as devastating as the WWI epic. I cannot recommend that little picture enough.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Women Talking
Who Should Win: Women Talking
Sarah Polley wrote the most beautiful, desperate dialogue of the year and made a movie that takes place almost entirely in a barn riveting. If she doesn't win, there's no justice in the world. That being said, once again, for like the eighth time in this post, All Quiet could pull an upset. But I'd rather not think about that possibility right now.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Picture feels like a lock, but the Daniels deserve individual awards for what they've crafted. EEAAO is so weird and funny and resonant that it would be bonkers if anything else took the prize.
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Waymond is the heart of the movie, and Quan has been on such an incredible journey with this film. His win will be one of the most euphoric moments of the night.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Who Should Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This feels like the closest category of the year. There's a lot of doubt about Bassett's chances in an Academy that may be hesitant to vote for a Marvel movie performance. Curtis and Hsu could split the EEAAO votes, leaving room for Chau or Condon to swoop in. But I think Bassett will take it, as much a legacy award as a testament to the raw, grounded emotion she brought to this overstuffed comic book movie. She embodies our collective grief over the loss of Chadwick Boseman and brings down the house in one of the year's best movie speeches.
Best Actor
Who Will Win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Who Should Win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
The Academy loves a big biopic performance. Way more than I do. Butler is good in Elvis, but you almost never forget you're watching an impersonation. Farrell is generating more empathy with his big sad eyebrows than any other actor this year. Every scene is as heartbreaking as it is hilarious, and that's not something many actors could pull off. That being said, it's an incredible line up this year. All five are first time nominees, and each deserve the statue. If there's an upset by Nighy, Fraser, or Mescal, I'll be just as happy for them.
Best Actress
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Who Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Again, it feels like a coin flip. Blanchett is doing undeniably great work on TÁR. And carrying more of her movie. But Michelle Yeoh is playing so many believable versions of the same character while remaining true who Evelyn is across variations. And she's overdue for a nomination, let alone a win. Yeoh would be the more exciting win. I've got my fingers crossed for her.
(Side note: Danielle Deadwyler was robbed of a nomination. Not only should she have been nominated, she should have won.)
Best Director
Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Who Should Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Sheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
I could be playing it too safe with EEAAO. There's a chance it sweeps the whole ceremony. But I think there's still enough old guard voters in the Academy, so Spielberg is who I'm predicting here. It's been 25 years since his last Oscar, and The Fabelmans is his most personal film to date. But the vision of the Daniels shines through every decision made in EEAAO. I wouldn't be surprised if they won, and if Spielberg wasn't the first to congratulate them after they return to their seats.
Best Picture
Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
My favorite movie of the first half of 2022 was EEAAO. In the second half it was TÁR. I think TÁR might be the better movie, ultimately, but there's no winning if it wins, ya know? It will make a superb loser, while EEAAO is a celebration of life and love and it can survive the backlash. It's the scrappy underdog that no one could take their eyes off of and ascended both in spite of and because of its originality.
And that's that...
I'm feeling confident in about 50% of these choices. How wrong will I be? We'll find out in a few hours!
The 95th Academy Awards airs live on ABC at 8 p.m. EST tonight, March 12. Jimmy Kimmel is hosting.
No comments:
Post a Comment